Temas de política mundial en el 2018

Los motores comienzan a calentarse y el mundo está lleno de expectativas respecto al 2018. Este año será un “año nervioso” como explicaron con cierta preocupación en uno de los más recientes números en la revista The Economist. Y esto es desde ya cierto para nuestra región; en Centroamérica no salimos de un conflicto y ya nos estamos metiendo en otro más de los ya usuales temblores económicos y políticos que afectan las esperanzas de crecimiento sostenible de la economía.

Economía global:

Para aquellos de nosotros en los negocios, la economía mundial continuará moviéndose a un ritmo moderado. Solo deberíamos preocuparnos de que los banqueros centrales de las economías desarrolladas no continúen jugando con las tasas de interés. Además, hay que leer con atención las decisiones que tome el gobierno británico respecto al acuerdo comercial que establecerá con la Unión Europea luego de su salida (las recientes votaciones fueron un revés para el gobierno conservador y esto es una amenaza para la estabilidad económica y comercial).

Medio Oriente:

El próximo año será particularmente difícil en Medio Oriente debido a la derrota territorial del Estado Islámico. El impacto de esta derrota se verá con más ataques y des-estabilización en Siria, Iraq y Turquía que rápidamente pueden convertirse en líos globales. A esto, debemos sumar la amenaza presentada por el gobierno de Donald Trump y sus pequeños aliados al reconocer la ciudad de Jerusalén como la capital de Israel en un conflicto que tiene más de 50 años de estarse desarrollando.

Corea del Norte – USA:

Asia y el mundo entero se unirán en contra de la proliferación nuclear y deberemos de seguir con mucha atención el abismo de aislamiento económico y político en el que se está sumiendo Corea del Norte; las recientes plásticas entre Corea del Norte y Corea del Sur pueden ser solamente una excusa de Pyongyang por retrasar un ataque directo de Estados Unidos.

 

 

Elecciones en Latino América:

Para nuestra región, las principales noticias serán de las elecciones en el año 2018. Brasil y México, las dos economías más grandes de la región tendrán dos controvertidas elecciones y los votantes habrán de decidir entre uno de los peores males en cada candidatura.

Las elecciones en Brasil y México serán decisivas en cuanto al crecimiento o no de América Latina. En Brasil, el gobierno tiene como prioridad estabilizar el aumento de la relación deuda pública versus PIB. La baja en la inflación y las tasas de interés están facilitando una recuperación económica gradual liderada por el aumento del consumo. El resultado de las elecciones presidenciales de octubre de 2018 es incierto. En México, continuará la incertidumbre sobre la revisión del TLC con Estados Unidos y el resultado de las elecciones presidenciales de julio de 2018 ya se hace escuchar. Andrés Manuel López Obrador, del partido de centro-izquierda, sigue siendo el favorito para la presidencia, pero la carrera la decidirá contra Jose Antonio Meade Kuribreña del PRI. Ante esta situación, el crecimiento del PIB promediará 2.1% para México en los períodos 2018-22 según el Banco Mundial.

Centroamérica:

Para Centroamérica, el pesimismo está a la vuelta de la esquina, y la ilegalidad del gobierno hondureño al reelegirse seguirá siendo una controversia durante el primer semestre del 2018.  La decisión de los líderes de nuestros país vecino durante las primeras semanas de enero y febrero serán muy importante para determinar el pronóstico económico del país y también el nuestro.  Recordemos que más del 40% de las exportaciones guatemaltecas se envían a importadores del Mercado Común Centroamericano (El Salvador, Honduras, Nicaragua, Costa Rica) y cualquier problema político de larga escala en ese país nos impactará seriamente.  Es importante recalcar que, en los últimos años, Honduras tuvo el mejor pronóstico económico de crecimiento en la región para los próximos años y el caos creado por la reelección inconstitucional de Hernández puede poner las cosas patas arriba.

Guatemala:

Por último, nos queda Guatemala. El año 2018 será un año clave para la continuidad de las investigaciones de la CICIG y el Ministerio Público. Al momento, se han anunciado que nuevos casos serán presentados a principios del 2018. La lucha entre el Pacto de Corruptos y nosotros, la gente honesta, seguirá siendo una batalla dura y larga. Con la reciente elección de la Junta Directiva del Congreso de Guatemala el Pacto de Corruptos se ha fortalecido. El publico deberá seguir con mucha atención la elección de:

  • Consulta Popular del diferendo territorial, insular y marítimo con Belice: 15 de abril.
  • Fiscal General: 17 de mayo.
  • Contralor General: 13 de octubre.
  • Corte Suprema de Justicia: 13 de octubre.
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The gated community motto: Come and live in a lie while ignoring life!

The papers, books and studies related to the urban development of gated communities in the Global South have provided lots of information by problematizing the history and politics behind the imaginary of these projects. Urban developers all over Latin America, Africa and Asia are building hundreds of communities and apartment buildings that imitate European and Western Styles of construction, lifestyle, norms and regulations. This morning I got my hands in one more of these advertisements for a housing project located in a recently developed dormitory city near Guatemala City, Guatemala.

The community is called “Residenciales Pasaje Español” and the development aims at replicating the lifestyle of a Spaniard ideal of a community  (while, of course, ignoring reality about Spain’s complexities).  The advertisements are all directed at the appeals of the growing middle-class market in Guatemala which is backed by a search for: affordable housing, accesible parks, gated walls around the housing project, 24/7 private police service, white houses that offer access to parking spaces for family-sized cars.  All of this providing a “theme-park” feeling that enables you to transport yourself from the violent and insecure life outside of the gates.

plano del proyecto

Guatemala City and the dormitory cities around it are inhabited by aprox. 3.5 million people with more than 1 million cars and the figures are quickly rising. Many of the gated communities are 1 or 1.5 hours away from most of the office and industrial areas and traffic jam is a constant worry for this people. Alienated from crime and lack of rule of law, these gated-communities offer an escape from public worries to taxpayers and an excuse to ignore the country’s multiple problems.

torres de luz

But as any other theme-park there are many flaws and dangers in the aim to replicate the “ideal society”.  The complex is located straight next to a line of huge power towers that represent a health menace to the people that will live in the houses. Also, the gated-community is surrounded by hundreds of new houses and dozens of new gated-communities that once completed and sold will represent an increase in the traffic jam outside of the “housing dream”.

Perhaps it is still time to Rethink the future of our cities. We still have time to further problematize our development model and think about the contradictions behind these city-building dystopias. And bring to light more information regarding how these gated-communities further weaken collaboration, cooperation and citizenship in our societies…

The never-ending cycle of revolutions

via: http://www.activistpost.com

“A revolution is the climax of a long philosophical development and expresses a nation’s profound discontent; a Putsch is a minority’s seizure of power. The goal of a revolution is to overthrow tyranny; the goal of a Putsch is to establish it.” Ayn Rand

The day after Revolution the streets were in silence. Anarchy was the rule and a no man’s land emerged. The protests against the ruling party had started several weeks before. However, as my grandmother recalled, the problems that had ignited the most recent uprising had always existed: ” these were the very old unfulfilled promises long inherited from Colonial times.”  Indeed, these promises were the idea that Government was here to rule over Us, to give Us and to provide Us for our needs and to care for our frailties.  The Global South has known dozens of revolutionary movements, dozens of attempts of revolutions and a handful of sanguinary coup d’états. Unfortunately, not much if anything has changed after the uprisings.

Around the world today conflict  continues in many areas that were once colonized or controlled by Western European or Soviet powers. The source of many of these protracted conflicts, in large part, lies in past colonial  policies, and especially those “regarding territorial boundaries, the treatment of indigenous populations, the privileging of some groups over others, the uneven distribution of wealth, local governmental infrastructures, and the formation of non-democratic or non-participatory governmental systems.”

It is therefore essential, if one wants to understand current revolutionary movements, intractable conflict and its causes, to examine not only the issues and problems of the moment, but also influential historical factors and actors – most notably, past colonial policies and today’s ruling power of these metropolis over former colonies – and their lingering effects.

The idea that the government should provide for our needs is more accepted in post-colonial governments that inherited institutions of dependency and granted privileges by the metropolis.  Imagine yourself traveling 200 years back in time to the period in which colonies were ruled by Western Capital. Interestingly, you will find yourself observing almost the same institutions and the same old problems that societies in the Global South still face today in Africa, the Middle East, South America, Eastern Europe and South Asia. The problems in these societies are the result of a long list of misguided decisions all centered in one fatal conceit: the conceit of revolution by force, not in defense, but in violation, of individual rights.

The colonial institutional heritage of the Global South is built around the abuse and violation of individual rights. Not a single revolutionary movement in the Global South has really aimed at restoring individual rights but to the granting of privileges for a minority.  The minority groups have taken many forms, received many names and have taken many slogans. They have been revolutions organized by and in contraposition of one minority group versus a majority: of the poor versus the rich, of the middle classes versus oligarch classes, of national interests of capital versus foreign interests, of enlightened groups versus conservative groups, of different ethnic groups against each other, of indigenous groups tired of being exploited, and many many more.

In order for a revolution that aims at restoring individual rights to take place it would be  necessary for all citizens to first redefine their code of values upon principles that allow them to pursue happiness without violating the rights of others.  This means that for a “revolution and not a putsch” to take place in the Global South we need first to understand that today’s revolutions have no moral justification and are all gang warfare.  As such, in order to change our immoral systems of government we require to first our own immoral code of values.  This means that we need to learn our history and fix all those immoral decisions taken in the past by our former enslavers.

I believe that the ideal way for starting to learn which is the code of values that provides for a consistent philosophy of life that protects individual rights and allows for humans to pursue happiness is the philosophy of Objectivism and the Objectivist Ethics.

If successful, most probably, the ongoing revolutionary movements in the Middle East, Ukraine and Venezuela will reflect to be nothing but immoral putsches of the very same old privileged groups that they were supposed to fight.  Corruption will take a new name, the citizens will be again defrauded by their leaders, immorality will again reign.  the power currently upheld by immoral leaders is not a simple system of domination of one specific group but it completely traverses the entire social body.  When social relations are not based upon a consistent and ethical code of values its result is “the immanence of force” that Foucault widely studied.    In this game of power, the incessant struggle and confrontation will be reinforced, transformed and reshaped without any meaningful outcome.  This never-ending cycle of revolutions will encrust and institutionalize itself if it hasn’t already. I truly believe that a Peaceful Philosophical revolution is Possible.  It is up to you reader, to chose wether to start it or not.

Global Education trends

Image

In the last few years I have found myself immersed traveling around different cultures.  A trend I have observed is that the more educated people has been, the more they are healthy and the more they are cooperative towards the rest.  Following Malow’s hierarchy of needs one can easily understand why is it that education is so important to help establishing a better society.  My favourite philosophers agree that in order for a human to act rationally he/she needs to know clearly which is his/her code of values and their aim in life.

Today’s reality whoever is discouraging to many in regard to the Global Educational trends.  The divergence between the Global North and South in terms of educational development is increasing:

globalliteracychallenges_0

Why is it that development has continued growing uneven in these regions is the field of study of global studies and it requires a long discussion.  One thing is certain: in order for ignorance to be cured there is only one medicine: cheap or free good access to all knowledge.  For this reason I support strongly projects like Google Books and many others in local areas.  I contribute to this global project by donating printed books and providing access to an online ebook collection of Humanities. Now, how are you contributing to this project?

Entendiendo el racismo en Guatemala ¿Qué opinas?

Hace algunas semanas estaba leyendo un cuadernillo de investigación de la USAC titulado “El Terrateniente guatemalteco: una aproximación a su concepción ecológica y a los efectos de su práctica productiva sobre el medio ambiente” y me parece prudente mencionarlo ahora que la gente ha empezado a hablar en demasía con términos abstractos como “guatemala” “guatemaltecos” “nosotros” “ellos” y a veces abusan de los términos vacíos con los que pretenden hacer representaciones de unidad. Continue reading “Entendiendo el racismo en Guatemala ¿Qué opinas?”

Chavez is dead

“God is dead. God remains dead. And we have killed him. Yet his shadow still looms. How shall we comfort ourselves, the murderers of all murderers? What was holiest and mightiest of all that the world has yet owned has bled to death under our knives: who will wipe this blood off us? What water is there for us to clean ourselves? What festivals of atonement, what sacred games shall we have to invent? Is not the greatness of this deed too great for us? Must we ourselves not become gods simply to appear worthy of it?”
—Nietzsche, The Gay Science, Section 125, tr. Walter Kaufmann

 

Overcoming the goods and bads of Mr. Chavez will not be any easy.  Eliminating redistribution of wealth programs will be almost impossible and the surrender of greater virtues like rationality, honesty, integrity, productivity and justice will be most surely sacrificed by the ruling leader for the sake of his reelection.  Even now that Mr. Chavez died, the Venezuelan Welfare State supports millions of its voters.  Just last year,  Venezuela added more than 800,000 people to the rolls of the state welfare system and  the number of pensioners reaches nearly 2.5 million, an increase of over 600 percent since 1999 in total pensions paid by the state, all of which are indexed to the national minimum wage (via venezuelanalysis.com).  Though he died, his party continues living and his ideas will continue been fostered in the form of more programs in the Venezuelan welfare state.  For this and many more reasons I say: Chavez is dead.

In a global scale the death of former President of Venezuela, Hugo Chávez Frías, will be very limited but noticeable for countries like China and Russia who benefited after Mr. Chavez expelled Western oil companies operating in the country and replaced them with Chinese and Russian state owned companies.  This oil companies were the most important strongholds of this two powerful countries in Latin America.

In a regional perspective the disappearance of this controversial figure will have important effects in Latin America as well.  Specially, around the league of the group ALBA (Spanish Acronyms for the Bolivarian Alliance for the Americas) in which he played an important role as its founder and main speaker against the North American interventionist policy.  Without Mr. Chavez the possibility of a halt of the oil donations to the member countries of this alliance could have an important significance as well. Venezuela donated millions of barrels of oil to needy Caribbean states, particularly Cuba, but also countries like Trinidad and Tobago and this countries in exchange commissioned their doctors to help in the most needed areas of Venezuela.  This symbolic gesture has been a constant diplomatic activity of the poor Caribbean states.

Also, Nicaragua benefited from Mr. Chavez anti-American policy.  The government of the former guerrilla leader Daniel Ortega and his party’s politburo have been recipient of more than $2.2 billion in Venezuelan petrodollars since 2007.  To them, the election of a member of the Chavez regime is fundamental to continue holding control of elections in the next term.  Further, the Pulitzer Center reports that “Since Ortega returned to power democratically in 2007, the wellspring of aid from ALBA — a bloc of eight left-leaning Latin American countries underwritten by Chavez — has provided the Sandinista government with an average of $500 million a year in loans, donations and oil credit. In 2011, Ortega’s ALBA allowance jumped to $609 million during his own re-election campaign.”  Showing how Venezuelan interventionism in the region was in occasions more powerful than the interventions of the United States of America that are historically hated and protested by leftists demagogues.

Venezuela has been officially (though in contravention to its Constitution) under the rule of the Vicepresident Nicolás Maduro since the death of Mr. Chavez.  He is now the interim President of Venezuelafollowing the death of Hugo Chávez.  Mr. Maduro will most probably run for the elections with very high chances of winning.  Before dying, Hugo Chavez ran for reelection in 2012 and got the vote of 55% of the voters.  His approval ratings among the poorest of the voters is very high and his main opponent, Henrique Capriles Radonski, will have it very difficult to win.  More important to note is the fact that Mr. Capriles is mentioned as being part of the Centre-Right of the country.  However, if elected his main policies may end up been very similar to the ones that gave popularity to Mr. Chavez.  He may thus be a centre-right from hand-to-mouth and a centre-left activist in practice.

Mr. Chavez ruled the country since February 2 1999 until 5 March 2013.  During his 14 years in power he reformed to his convenience the Venezuelan Constitution several times, created dozens of agencies formed by members of his party, formed hundreds of thousands of state-owned cooperatives, fuelled billions of dollars in his stated goal to lower inequality in the access to basic nutrition, and to achieve food sovereignty for Venezuela.  Further, he placed Venezuela at the centre of the regional foreign policy with states in Africa, Asia and Europe.

February 20 1524. The Commemoration of the death and defeat of a Mayan Prince in a Critical Juncture of Globalization

Title: The Clash.<br /><br />By: Alfredo Gálvez Suárez.<br /><br />A depiction of the battle of 1524 in which the Spanish conquistadores defeated the Army leaded by Tecum Umam.
Title: The Clash.
By: Alfredo Gálvez Suárez.
A depiction of the battle of 1524 in which the Spanish conquistadores defeated the Army leaded by Tecum Umam.

The term Globalization refers to what many different historians considered a process of interrelation (or unification) of the world. It was a process of cultural, political and economic relations that for the first time in history united all mankind.  One of these critical events of unification and clash of cultural and political relations took place in  February 20 1524.  This day is commemorated by Guatemalans to remember the leaders and events of the “The battle of Llanos del Pinal  ((The Society of Geography and History of Guatemala documented that this battle actually took place on February 12 1524) which took place in the vicinity of the K’iche’ Mayan city of  Xelajú (located in today’s mountainous area of Guatemala in Central America).

tecun-uman

In this battle, the K’iche’ Rajpop Achij Tecum Umam (Guatemala’s National Hero and K’iche’ Mayan Captain of the army) commanded an army of 72,000 warriors (as narrated by the Chronicler Francisco de Fuentes y Guzmán) that fought against the invading hordes of the conquistador Pedro de Alvarado and his indigenous allies from the territories that are today the South of Mexico. While the invaders defeated the K’iche’ army, the chroniclers of this battle remembered Tecum Umam as the glorious warrior and miraculous hero that started to be referred in the narrations with epic roles and anthropomorphic abilities.

After this battle that “tainted all the neighbouring rivers red of blood” the Spanish conquistadores continued their invasion in the following month of the city of Q’umarkaj (also known as Utatlán). This secured for them the hegemony over the other less powerful cities of IximcheMixco Viejo, and Zaculeu that were located in the Southernmost part of the Sierra Madre mountain range.

The aftermath of this battle concluded six years later with the Quauhquechollan alliance of the conquistador Jorge de Alvarado (brother of Pedro de Alvarado) and their Nahuatl allies from the city of Quauhquechollan that gave the Spanish and absolute control of large part of Mesoamerica.

By the beginning of the Spanish conquest the territory of Mesoamerica the Mayan Civilisation was already extinguished and dozens of different indigenous tribes leaded by  caciques, warriors and priests controlled weaker and less advanced forced-labor societies.  This enabled the conquest of the territories to be fast and easy.

Just a decade later, by the 1540s, the new elite that ruled this forced-labor societies had already established itself with a mixed Spanish-Indigenous head in control and started the process of acculturation, integration, evangelisation, assimilation and reeducation of a society that went from a tribalist type of life into a mercantilist economy ruled from a metropolitan and global Empire with its head 5,400 miles away in the city of Madrid.

Since 1524, Mesoamerica joined the global community of trade, commerce, acculturation and universalisation of traditions and costumes.  This is an important junction that should be remembered by all of us.